With increasing political attention on the U.S.-Mexico border, it's easy to feel like we're living through an immigration crisis unlike any before. The prevailing narrative suggests that the situation at the southern border is the worst in American history. As a private citizen diving into publicly available data, I’ve come to realize that while there are notable surges today, the notion that this is the worst crisis ever lacks important historical context.
Looking at Current Trends: What the Numbers Say
Let’s begin by examining the most recent data on border crossings. The first chart made famous at a Trump rally back in July, titled "Illegal Immigration Into the U.S.", outlines monthly encounters at the southern border from 2012 to 2024. The data shows a noticeable increase in crossings between 2021 and 2024, particularly among family units and minors. This period corresponds with the start of the Biden administration, which some critics argue is directly responsible for the surge. However, a closer look at the data reveals that significant spikes also occurred in 2019 and early 2021—well before Biden took office. These spikes happened under the Trump administration, despite policies like the Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP) and increased enforcement efforts.
This historical context is important because it highlights that migration is influenced by factors far beyond U.S. policy alone. The surge in 2019, for example, occurred despite Trump’s "Remain in Mexico" policy. While the MPP was intended to deter asylum seekers by forcing them to wait outside U.S. borders, the reality is that violence, poverty, and instability in Central America continued to drive people northward. Even Trump’s stringent measures could not completely stem the flow of migration, suggesting that policy alone is insufficient to fully control these trends.
Historical Context: Are Today’s Numbers Really Unprecedented?
To truly understand whether the southern border is facing its worst crisis ever, we need to step back and look at immigration trends over a longer timeline. One of the most insightful graphs in this discussion is the one titled "Illegal Immigration: Monthly Encounters at the Southwest Border (2000-2023)." This graph shows that while there is indeed an uptick in crossings today, the numbers were significantly higher in the early 2000s.
This trend is further supported by another graph that highlights the U.S. unauthorized immigrant population from 1990 to 2017. The graph shows that the number of unauthorized immigrants peaked around 2007, with approximately 12.2 million people living in the U.S. without legal status. Today, that number has declined to between 10.5 and 11 million, indicating that the overall population of unauthorized immigrants is lower now than it was over a decade ago. This is another reminder that, while today’s situation is serious, it is lacking context to fit a partisan narrative.
External Factors Driving Migration
To understand why migration numbers fluctuate, it's essential to examine the external factors that drive people to leave their home countries. Much of the recent surge in migration can be traced to instability in Central America, where violence, political unrest, and economic hardship have made living conditions unbearable for many people. Countries like Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala are experiencing extreme poverty and violence, which push people to seek safety and stability in the U.S.
Migration patterns are often driven by such push factors, and U.S. border policy, no matter how strict, cannot fully address these root causes. Even under Trump’s administration, with the introduction of stricter policies like family separation and the MPP, migration continued. This is clear from the 2019 spike, which saw a significant increase in family units attempting to cross the border despite the enhanced enforcement. This indicates that people will continue to migrate, even when policies make it more dangerous or difficult to do so.
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The chart "Southern Border Apprehensions at All-Time High" shows another important trend: in recent years, more migrants have been coming from countries other than Mexico. While historically, most migrants crossing the southern border were from Mexico, today, a growing number are from Central American countries, particularly those facing severe challenges like gang violence and economic crises. This shift further underscores the importance of addressing the root causes of migration in these countries if we are to manage the flow of people seeking entry into the U.S.
Why the 2020-2021 Transition Was Different
One of the most significant spikes in crossings occurred in late 2020 and early 2021, just before Biden took office. This has been used as evidence that migrants were rushing to the border in anticipation of a more lenient administration. However, a similar spike did not occur during the transition from Obama to Trump in 2016-2017. Why is that?
The answer likely lies in the stark differences between the two transitions. Trump’s campaign was built on a platform of strict immigration enforcement, and he made his intentions to crack down on immigration clear from the start. Migrants likely anticipated tougher policies under Trump, which deterred crossings in the immediate transition period. In contrast, Biden was expected to reverse many of Trump’s policies, which may have contributed to the perception that the U.S. border would be easier to cross under the new administration. However, this perception does not fully account for the broader drivers of migration, which remain constant regardless of who is in the White House.
The Need for a Balanced Approach
While it’s easy to point to border policy as the main factor driving migration numbers, the data suggests that no administration—Republican or Democrat—has been able to fully control migration flows. Enforcement measures, like Trump’s family separation policy or Obama’s deportation strategy, can temporarily reduce crossings, but they don’t address the fundamental reasons people are leaving their countries in the first place.
Countries like Germany and Canada provide examples of how comprehensive immigration systems that combine enforcement with legal pathways can manage migration more effectively. By creating clear legal pathways for migrants, these countries reduce the pressure on their borders and ensure that migration flows are more predictable and controlled. The U.S. could benefit from adopting similar strategies, focusing not only on enforcement but also on creating legal avenues for migration and addressing the conditions that push people to leave their homes.
Crisis, But Not Unprecedented
While the current situation at the southern border is serious, it is not unprecedented. The data clearly shows that there have been periods in the past, particularly in late 90s - early 2000s, when border crossings were seeing similar surges. Additionally, the overall unauthorized immigrant population has declined since its peak in 2007, further challenging the narrative that things are worse now than ever before. There also requires context to illegal immigration occurring in the early 1900s, though it seems still outpaced by todays standards. However, it is worth pointing out to today's citizens were, perhaps, ancestors of illegal migrants of the past.
Migration is driven by a complex combination of factors, many of which are beyond the control of U.S. policymakers. While border enforcement is a necessary part of managing migration, it is not sufficient on its own. Addressing the root causes of migration in countries like Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador—through foreign aid, development programs, and diplomatic engagement—will be essential if we are to find a long-term solution to the challenges at the southern border.
The southern border is facing challenges, but these challenges are part of a larger historical trend that reflects the ongoing push and pull of global migration. By placing today’s numbers in context, it becomes clear that while we must address these issues with urgency, we also need to avoid overstating the severity of the current situation in comparison to past migration waves.
